Qatar, 1 July, 2024 : Doha: The latest Economic Insight report for the Middle East, compiled by Oxford Economics and commissioned by ICAEW, forecasts a cautious economic recovery for the GCC in 2024, largely influenced by extended oil production curbs.
The growth forecast for the GCC has been revised down to 2.2% from 2.7% previously, with non-energy sectors showing resilience, particularly in Bahrain and Qatar.
Qatar, exempt from OPEC+ production quotas, anticipates GDP growth of 2.2% this year, projected to accelerate to 2.9% in 2025. In contrast, Bahrain's GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.1% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 as it continues economic diversification efforts.
High-frequency data indicates robust growth in non-energy sectors across the GCC, with significant investments expected in Saudi Arabia's giga-projects and strong momentum in sports, entertainment, and tourism sectors.
Despite fiscal challenges due to lower oil prices, GCC countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait are likely to maintain overall budget surpluses, supported by strong financial positions and favorable credit ratings.
Hanadi Khalife of ICAEW noted the region's commitment to diversification and sustainability targets, highlighting Qatar's issuance of green bonds and Bahrain's alignment with Economic Vision 2030 and COP28 commitments.
Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Advisor, emphasized the GCC's positive outlook amid global economic slowdowns, citing significant bilateral deals and investments in Qatar and Bahrain's growing financial services sector.
Inflationary pressures across the GCC remain subdued, with rates below 2% in most countries, supported by stable exchange rates pegged to the US dollar and tracking the US Federal Reserve's policy rates.
Source : www.zawya.com
