KSA, 20 March, 2025 : The GCC economy is expected to grow by 4% in 2025, up from an estimated 1.8% in 2024, despite rising global protectionism and geopolitical tensions, according to the latest ICAEW Economic Insight report.
The region remains largely insulated from direct tariff impacts, with non-energy sectors projected to expand by 4.4% in 2025, up from 3.9% in 2024. Tourism, a key driver, will continue to fuel growth, supported by the GCC-wide visa initiative.
Oil production is set to increase following recent OPEC+ policy shifts, driving 3.2% oil-sector growth. Saudi Arabia’s output is expected to reach 9.3 million barrels per day, while the UAE's higher quota of 3.5 million barrels per day will support 4.8% growth. Oil prices are forecast to average $70.5 per barrel in 2025, down from $80.5 in 2024.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to lead non-oil growth at 5.8% and 4.8%, respectively. Qatar’s GDP is forecast to rise by 2.1%, with a significant boost in 2026 as additional LNG capacity comes online. Bahrain's economy is set to double its growth rate to 2.8%, driven by a 3.1% expansion in the non-oil sector.
ICAEW's Head of Middle East, Hanadi Khalife, highlighted strong investment in tourism and infrastructure as key growth enablers. Chief Economist Scott Livermore emphasized the GCC’s resilience in advancing diversification efforts despite softer oil prices.
Regional inflation is projected at 2.3% in 2025, stabilizing around 2% in the medium term. Fiscal policies remain balanced, with Qatar and the UAE running surpluses, while Saudi Arabia is expected to post a 3% GDP deficit due to strategic investments.
Source : www.zawya.com
