Qatar Forecasts Strong Fiscal Surpluses Through 2025

Qatar, 20 August, 2024 : Qatar is expected to achieve solid fiscal surpluses of around 7-8% of GDP in 2024 and 2025, driven by modest increases in hydrocarbon revenues, according to a recent report by the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK). Qatar’s gross public debt is projected to decline from over 60% of GDP in 2021 to 45% by 2025.

The country's nominal GDP is forecasted at $211.7 billion in 2024 and $218.8 billion in 2025, with budget balances predicted at 8.1% and 6.9% of GDP, respectively. The current account balance is expected to remain strong, at 13% of GDP in 2024 and 11.7% in 2025.

Non-oil growth is anticipated to accelerate to 2-3% over the next two years, recovering from a post-World Cup dip. Inflation is forecasted at a modest 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.

NBK highlighted the positive impact of credit growth, elevated visitor numbers, and PMI readings above 50 as key factors supporting domestic demand and non-oil sector growth.

While overall GDP growth will be modest, significant gains are expected from 2026 onward with the completion of Qatar’s LNG expansion, which will boost output by 43%. By 2030, LNG capacity is planned to nearly double, positioning Qatar as a dominant global player in the sector.

NBK cautioned that while upside risks could emerge from higher gas prices, potential downside risks include geopolitical tensions or lower global demand for gas.

Source : www.zawya.com