Saudi GDP Growth Set to Rebound in H2 2024, CreditSights Forecasts

KSA, 23 August, 2024 : Saudi Arabia’s economic growth is projected to turn positive in the second half of 2024, with GDP forecasted to grow 1.7% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, according to research firm CreditSights.

The Kingdom’s real GDP contracted by 0.4% year-on-year in Q2 2024, following a 0.8% decline in 2023. This downturn was largely driven by deliberate oil production cuts aimed at stabilizing global prices and supporting public finances, noted CreditSights’ Head of EM Sovereign Strategy, Regis Chatellier.

However, the recession appears to be easing, with a less pronounced GDP decline in Q2 2024 compared to previous quarters. If crude prices stay near $80 per barrel, the Kingdom’s external surplus is expected to remain slightly positive.

Saudi sovereign bonds have modestly underperformed this year, but CreditSights remains optimistic, maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the risk-reward outlook remains attractive, especially for long-term bonds, given current global conditions.

Source : www.zawya.com