S&P Projects 5.8% GDP Growth for Qatar in 2026-2027, Driven by LNG Expansion

Qatar, 10 January, 2025 :  S&P Global Ratings projects Qatar’s real GDP growth to average 5.8% in 2026-2027, up from 2% in 2024-2025. This growth will be fueled by the North Field Expansion project, which will increase LNG production by nearly 35% by 2027.

However, domestic credit growth is expected to slow to around 5% in 2025-2026, down from the 11% average growth seen from 2019-2022. This slowdown is attributed to the return to normal non-hydrocarbon economic activity, limited LNG production growth until 2025, and the completion of several capital projects.

Despite high geopolitical tensions in the region, S&P does not foresee a full-scale conflict and expects Qatar’s macroeconomic conditions to remain stable.

Qatar’s banking sector is projected to remain profitable, supported by strong capitalization and adequate liquidity. However, net interest margins are expected to decline modestly due to interest rate cuts. The country’s external debt, comprising one-third of domestic credit, poses limited risk, as lower funding needs and government support for the banking sector mitigate potential external debt outflows in the event of increased geopolitical risks.