Saudi 2025 Growth Forecast Trimmed to 3% as Oil Rebound Slows

KSA, 23 April, 2025 : The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 3%, down from a previous estimate of 3.3%, citing a slower rebound in oil production and broader regional challenges.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF also cut Saudi’s 2026 growth projection by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7%. Growth for the wider Middle East and Central Asia region was lowered to 3% for 2025, from 3.6% earlier.

The IMF noted that the downward revision reflects persistent conflict spillovers, sluggish structural reform progress, and oil market uncertainty. Crude prices remain at their lowest since the pandemic, prompting oil-dependent governments to consider increased borrowing and spending cuts.

Despite these pressures, Gulf economies like Saudi Arabia remain relatively resilient due to high reserves, low debt, and diversification under Vision 2030. In March, S&P raised Saudi’s long-term credit rating to 'A+', citing strong institutions and non-oil sector growth, though warning of potential fiscal strain if oil revenues weaken further.